Essays on America: Wednesday

18 Thursday Jul 2019

Posted by petersironwood in America, creativity, politics, psychology, Uncategorized

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How you see where you are depends on how you got there.

It’s Wednesday. And that means, at least for most of us, that yesterday was Tuesday. Mundane, right? Obvious, right?

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But suppose that it’s Wednesday for you but that yesterday was Thursday!

Oh, my! You would be in quite a different “Wednesday” than the rest of us would. How could this happen?

Many ways. You could be a character in a Sci-Fi movie. Maybe you were in a coma for six days. Or, you could have retrograde amnesia from a blow to the head. Or, maybe you have some weird form of temporal lobe epilepsy. No matter how you got from Thursday to Wednesday, you will treat the day quite differently from those of use who experienced yesterday as Tuesday.

And this is generally true of human beings.

How you experience your current reality depends a lot on how you got there.

It so happens that my dissertation studied human problem solving. I used a problem called the “Hobbits and Orcs problem.” You may have heard of it.

There are three Hobbits and three Orcs on one side of a river and you have to get them all over to the other side. The only way to cross the river is by use of a small boat. (No flying, swimming, catapulting, disapparating, etc. allowed). For the boat to operate and not simply float off downstream, it must have at least one creature in it. But the boat can only hold one or two creatures. It cannot hold more. Orcs, as you probably already know, are suspected of eating Hobbits. You cannot ever let more Orcs than Hobbits on either side of the river, even briefly. You can try the problem for yourself. Remember though…you cannot let there be more Orcs than Hobbits on either side of the river — not even briefly.

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I compared how people solved this problem to an early AI system modestly called, “The General Problem Solver.” As you might expect, even though both humans and the AI system (GPS) can solve the problem, they behave quite differently. For instance, the places where humans have trouble (take more time; make more mistakes) are quite different from the places where GPS slows down.

Start – HHHOOO (boat) {river}

Goal – {river} (boat) HHHOOO

Spoiler alert — now, I have to talk about the solution.

At one point, you will feel as though you’ve been making good progress and you have two hobbits and two orcs on the far side of the river along with the boat. Now, comes the sticking point (for humans). If an Orc brings back the boat, you’ll have two Orcs and one Hobbit on the near side. The two Orcs will gang up on the Hobbit and eat it. Fail! But if the Hobbit brings back the boat, the far side of the river will have two Orcs and one Hobbit so that Hobbit will get eaten.

Here is the situation:

HO {river} (boat) HHOO

The “trick” is to use one Hobbit and one Orc to bring the boat back. Now, you use two Hobbits to take the boat to the far side, and it’s pretty easy to solve from there. The “trick” is only “tricky” because it feels as though you are undoing the progress you’ve already made! You took two over and you need to bring two back. In fact, many subjects wanted to “give up” rather than bring two creatures back over. They claimed it was “insoluble.”

But wait.

It gets even stranger.

Half of my subjects began with a “half problem.” They started in this position.

Start: HO {river} (boat) HHOO

Goal: {river} (boat) HHHOOO

These subjects had very little trouble solving the problem. They began by taking the boat to the left side by using one Hobbit and one Orc. They quickly solved the rest of the problem.

Then I gave those same people, the entire problem again, but starting here:

Start – HHHOOO (boat) {river}

Goal – {river} (boat) HHHOOO

They had little problem at the beginning.

But when they got to the position shown below, many wanted to quit. Many said the problem was “impossible” once they got to this position:

Now: HO {river} (boat) HHOO

Goal: {river} (boat) HHHOOO

Does that pattern look familiar to you? It should!

This is exactly the problem that they themselves had just solved a few minutes earlier! When they started there, it was easy. But when they got there by arriving at it through their own effort, that same position was now daunting. They didn’t even recognize or realize that they had just been there. (None of this behavior was like that of the General Problem Solver, by the way).

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A number of economists were interested in this result. Why? Because “classic” economics operates like GPS. It looks at the Starting Point. It looks at the Goal. It looks at various possible moves. It doesn’t “care” how it got there. According to classical economics, if you buy IBM stock at $50 and I buy it at $150 and now it’s at $100, if we have the same knowledge, then we should make the same decision about whether to buy or sell. In reality, people do not. If you bought it at $50, you’ve made a huge profit and are happy to sell it. If I bought it at $150, I’m going to suffer a loss. How people view a situation is heavily dependent on how they got there.

Now, let’s play another little “what if” game.

What if you were an extremely rich person who also happened to be extremely selfish. In America, for instance, worker productivity has increased decade after decade. This meant that the wealthiest people in the country kept getting wealthier and wealthier. But the workers, who made a lot less than the owners, also benefited by getting wealthier.

Until around 1974. Then, a strange thing happened. The productivity of American workers continued to grow. However, the increased wealth that accrued from all those people learning new technology, learning new methods, using the suggestion box, etc. — none of that increased wealth went to the workers. All of it went to the richest people in the country.

https://economics.stackexchange.com/questions/15558/productivity-vs-real-earnings-in-the-us-what-happened-ca-1974

There had been a kind of partnership between owners and workers. The owners of large companies said, in effect: “if you keep being more productive by working harder, smarter, and faster, we will all benefit. We’ll have more profits and you’ll have higher wages.”

Then, the owners stopped living up to that implicit agreement. They took all the increased profits for themselves. Basically, that’s what happened in 1974. And it also happened in 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018. It varied, of course, somewhat from industry to industry, and month to month, and company to company but that is the big picture.

People who had organized their lives and the lives of their families around their jobs found that they had no job. Their jobs were shipped overseas or given over to automation. They were pissed off. As they should have been. Notice that this trend continued unabated under both Republican administrations and under Democratic administrations. It’s hard to even see a difference in the divergence that occurred between the ever-increasing wealth that workers contributed through their increased productivity and the stagnation in their real wages.

Then, we come to 2016 and someone said, “You can’t trust these politicians. They’re all the same. They are in cahoots with their rich donors. You know who you can trust? ME!”

The very worst fear of many of the wealthiest .001% of the country is that all workers will get together and demand their fair share! The workers are at least as responsible for the increased overall wealth as the owners. But while real wages for workers has been basically unchanged for decades, the compensation for owners has skyrocketed. Of course, they know it’s unfair! They don’t care if it is unfair. But they do care greatly that the yacht party of caviar and champagne continues unabated.

How to deal with this? What can you do if you’re wealthy because of other people’s work and this becomes common knowledge? You divide and conquer. You shout long enough and hard enough in every possible medium of communication that it isn’t the greed of the wealthy that has kept your wages from going up. Oh, no, not at all. It’s the foreign competition. It’s the people of color. It’s the gays. It’s the Muslims. It’s the Jews. It’s the uppity women. It’s the video games. It’s violence on TV. It’s sunspots. It’s aliens from other planets hidden in area 51. It’s lack of ambition on your part. It’s because you haven’t taken responsibility. It’s because of liberals who want to take all your guns away and make you eat quiche or salad.

Those that want it all for themselves are terrified that you’ll catch on to their game. And, if you do catch on, you may just choose not to play any longer. So, they buy politicians. They buy air time for commercials. They indoctrinate you to hate workers that look different; that speak differently; that eat different foods; that wear different clothes; that worship in buildings with a different shape. They plant lies about all of these “other” people so that you will hate those “other” people — meanwhile trying to convince you that they are on your side; that they are just like you really. After all, you’re both “white” or “straight” or “Christian” or “Midwestern” or whatever. But the truth is — the lives they live are quite different. Despite being extremely wealthy, many of them pay far less tax than you do. If their kids goof off in high school or aren’t very bright — no problem! They’ll just bribe the way for their kids to get into a top university.

So far, their little game has worked. By using the same methods that get you to buy skin products you don’t really need; the same methods that get you to buy sugared water at a high price; the same methods that get you hooked on sugar; the same methods that make you feel guilty about being overweight; the same methods that induce you to buy products and systems to help you lose weight; the same methods that fool you in a thousand ways — they get you to hate other people — people who are superficially different are “sold” as being fundamentally different. While the people whose lives really are fundamentally different from yours are being touted as living lives that are very similar to yours.

Once you begin voting for the folks who are paid for by these very wealthy people, you will tend to listen to them. You will tend to believe them. Not because you are stupid or gullible. You will do it because that’s what you’ve done in the past. The more you vote for them, the more you want to believe them. And, here’s the kicker: if they are outrageous in behavior and speech, you will want to believe them even more. After a few years, it doesn’t matter how absurd or ridiculous what they say is. You’ll still believe them. It’s not your fault, really. But it does keep you, and all the rest of us, trapped in a vicious circle.

You got to this Wednesday from yesterday. But your yesterday was Thursday. It’s comforting to know that there are millions of others who also got here from Thursday.

You don’t have to keep choosing this way. But many of you will. And, that’s precisely the way that the wealthiest .001% like it. They don’t want to share with you the wealth that you created. They’d much rather keep things the way they are. They’d much rather keep that wealth for themselves. After all, caviar, champagne, yachts, and beautiful teen-agers are expensive.

There is, of course, a much easier solution to the Hobbits and Orcs problem. Hobbits and Orcs could stop hating and mistrusting and killing each other. Then, crossing the river to the other side is easy. And that benefits everyone.

Everyone, that is, except the .001%.

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Abstract of article in Cognitive Psychology

Mobility of Body & Mind

12 Wednesday Jun 2019

Posted by petersironwood in America, psychology, Uncategorized

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innovation, learning, politics, sports, truth

As many of you know, I am using fiction (The Myths of the Veritas) to explore how various values interact. In our story currently, two of the Veritas barely escaped a forest fire and in the process, both injured themselves. This limited their mobility led me, not for the first time, to think about mobility more broadly. How does it relate to strategy and tactics in games, sports, and life? Are our concepts of mobility always useful? How else might one think about mobility?

This is also of interest because I recently fell down and broke some ribs. As the saying goes, “It only hurts when I laugh.” But that’s not very accurate. It also hurts to cough, hiccup, stand up, sit down, turn over, and lie down. I began to write about people with limited mobility and then my own mobility became limited, at least temporarily. So, now, I take a very short break from the Veritas and instead riff on mobility.

In college, one of my quad mates, Andy, happened to be an excellent chess player. I had enjoyed chess ever since I was about 10, but I had never actually studied it much. Andy introduced me to Emmanuel Lasker’s chess manual (an awesome and recommended book, by the way) and to think about chess positionally and strategically. Before that, I had mainly relied on “seeing” combinations (an unexpected and brilliant sequence of moves & counter-moves) as a way of winning.

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In the process of showing the values of chess, including mobility, Andy introduced me to a game called “Monster.” In this chess variant, one side has all the pieces and plays “normally.” The other side has only a king and four pawns. That’s right. A king and four pawns against a king, queen, eight pawns, two knights, two bishops, and two rooks! It sounds vastly one-sided. But here’s the twist. The side with only a king and four pawns gets two moves to every one move of the other side.

Unless the side with all the pieces plays quite well, it will quickly be overwhelmed by the side with double mobility. Perhaps this should not have been so surprising to me. Imagine you could run twice as fast as a “normally fast person.” In other words, you could run the 100 yard dash in 5 seconds rather than 10 and run 40 yards in 3 seconds. Not only would you be the world’s fastest sprinter, you could also run out most ground balls in baseball; if your basketball team got a rebound on the opponent’s side, they would pretty much be able to just throw the ball to the other side for the world’s fastest fast break. You would be pretty amazing in soccer or American football as well.

Needless to say (?), greater speed isn’t always an asset. In molecular terms, greater molecular velocity means a higher temperature. Humans and other warm-blooded animals employ various mechanisms (shivering, sweating, goose bumps, blood flow regulation, etc.) to keep their temperature fairly constant. If those molecules start moving around twice as fast as they normally do, the organism will quickly die. If the molecules move too slowly, the organism will also die.

As we age, thought, as well as movement, tends to slow down, other things being equal. Of course, other things are seldom equal. If you are highly experienced and well-practiced at something like playing piano, typing, coding, or doing cross-words, you will typically not slow down much and be much faster than a much younger but much less experienced pianist, typist, coder, or cross-word solver.

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Life is a dance of opposites; e.g., stability and change; duplication and diversity; movement and stasis. Long ago, our ancestors chose mobility and became animals while another whole branch of life chose stability and became plants. Even so, as time-lapse photography reveals, plants do move. Occasionally, they move much more rapidly as anyone who has touched the “triggers” of “touch-me-not” knows.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJ5dQ_Pdfac

Conversely, sometimes, animals move very little; e.g, bears hibernate; caterpillars form a chrysalis; people sleep (though they move during some phases of sleep). The male angler fish is much smaller than the female and spends its life essentially as an immobile parasite perched on the female until their blood supplies merge.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4LPmjQoc_A

On the whole though, our great branch of the tree of life evolved to move. And, when we do not move, there are problems for us physically. A complication to watch out for with broken ribs, for instance, is pneumonia. Why? For two reasons, I believe. First, because when it hurts to move generally, you generally move less. I won’t be playing tennis for a few weeks. That can affect overall health and decrease the amount of air that I need to exchange with my lungs as well. Second, it specifically hurts to take a deep breath. So, that also discourages me from taking deep, cleansing breaths. It discourages me, but I do it anyway.

It seems as though we may be touching on a general principle here. When an organism believes, for whatever reason, that the result of an action will be pain, it tends not take that action. Sometimes, it will be otherwise goaded into that action to avoid still great pain, but all the while, that organism will procrastinate, avoid, distract, and only take the painful action if absolutely cornered. It’s good to breathe deep even though it’s painful.

This piece of knowledge turns out to be quite useful in understanding the behavior of others as well. If I observe you to be avoiding doing something even though it has an obvious benefit to you, I then tend to assume that you fear something else even more; you anticipate pain. Just to take a random example, let’s suppose that a court demands that you present a piece of evidence and you refuse even though it would be a chance to clear you name. It’s at least a reasonable assumption, that you fear something else more; e.g., that the truth would implicate you in wrongdoing. You would want to slow everything down as much as possible. This would be particularly effective in the court of public opinion because any one particular topic might eventually become boring to the public.

It could work in more minor cases as well. If you are a kid and you steal cookies from the cookie jar, you could take the tack of denying it, blaming your little brother, suggesting the tooth fairy did it, convince your little brother than he should claim he stole them in order to win your favor, etc. There are a variety of tactics that could be employed. Most kids, however, are taught that honesty is the best policy. Although they don’t instantaneously become ethical on that account, eventually most see, by virtue of their own experience, that honesty really is the best policy.

Even for those who continue to lie in their words, their actions typically betray them.

Mother: “Who stole the cookies?”

Kid: “What cookies? It wasn’t me!”

Mother: “Can I inspect your hands?”

Kid (hastily thrusting his hands behind his back): “It wasn’t me! There’s nothing on my hands! No cookie crumbs! No cookie crumbs! (Kid brushes hands together audibly behind his back). Better check on my sister! She probably did it!”

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The poor kid continues to lie, but the structure of his actions; viz., to block Mom’s investigation, betrays the truth.

It will pretty obvious to Mom. Unless —unless, Mom went into the room already convinced that sister stole the cookies. Because the body is not the only thing that it takes energy to move. It also takes energy, in some sense, to change one’s mind. It also takes energy to block out the truth, of course, but only at first. If you do it often enough, it becomes painless and effortless.

One nearly universal example is the “blind spot” in the human retina. The place where the optic nerve exits the eyeball does not, itself, have any sensors. If you close your left eye, it appears that your right eye has no blind spot. It seems as though you have “full view” of what’s out there. In actuality, some of what you “see” has been constructed by the rest of your nervous system.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blind_spot_(vision)

What other blind spots do we have? We like to be mobile. We’re all in a hurry. But if we have blind spots and don’t even know that they’re there, we might just miss a step and break a rib or two. Maybe we’ve learned to ignore the kid brushing the cookie crumbs from his hands behind his back for far too long. But are we also so blind we cannot see the kid who’s still got his hand in the cookie jar? Yes, that one. The one six inches in front of our face.

It might be painful at first. But take a deep breath. Move the fresh air in and out of your lungs. It may hurt a bit, but it’s a cure that’s far better than the disease.

UPDATE: Today is December 24th, 2024 and I came across the post above first published about five and half years ago and wanted to add some new observations.

I love playing tennis. Now, at nearly 80, my mobility is not nearly what it was when I was younger. No big surprise there. I mainly play doubles. Even so, I often miss shots simply because I cannot get to them. The folks I play with are mostly my age so we have similar mobility issues.

What I find interesting is that many of the folks I play with handle their mobility issues by moving less whereas I believe it’s better to move more. I don’t mean that I move faster than I used to. I can’t. But I move more often and more strategically.

There are several benefits from moving more often:

First, it makes it much more difficult for the opposing team to hit just the right shot. If instead, my partner stays stock still until they realize a shot is coming close to them, it is trivial for our opposition to attempt to hit a shot that neither of us can reach. Conversely, if my partner moves just before they strike the ball, the shot becomes much more difficult for at least three reasons. It is more difficult to calculate the optimal attempted shot. It is also more likely that they will take their eye off the ball and glance at my partner. It is also harder for the opponents to hit the shot with confidence.

Beyond making the opponents job more difficult, if my partner and I are in nearly constant motion are muscles, joints, and nervous systems are being more active. This means, other things being equal, that we’re less likely to injure ourselves and more likely to react quickly and appropriately.

These advantages work best with good timing. If I move too soon or overcommit to a radical position, the opponents could take advantage. Ideally, one moves just before the opponent strikes the ball and stops, in balance, just as they strike it so that once you determine where they are hitting to, you can move without being “wrong-footed” (leaning or moving in the “wrong” direction).

In the longer term, moving more tends to keep you, the player, in better shape. You burn more calories; you use your muscles more; keep your bones stronger, and see things from a broader perspective. Theoretically, I suppose it’s possible to move too much, and wear yourself out, but I don’t see that happening at our age.

These comments manifest for me in tennis right now, but earlier in life, I also played a lot of softball. I never understood why the outfielders in softball typically never move until the ball is hit, particularly in slow pitch. If the “gaps” in the outfield are stable, it’s very easy to hit into them, but if they’re moving, it’s much more difficult. All but the very least fit outfielder is capable of moving with every pitch. In fact, in slow pitch you can actually tell somewhat where the ball is going to be hit by watching the pitch before the hit. If it’s inside, the hitter is more likely to pull and if it’s outside, the hitter is more likely to push the ball late into the opposite field. It’s far from a guarantee, but why not play the averages? In any case, by moving until right before the moment of contact, the outfielder has made their body more active and more able to move quickly than if they’ve been standing stock still for some minutes.

Author Page on Amazon

Fit in Bits on Amazon

The Winning Weekend Warrior on Amazon

Myths of the Veritas: The Beginning of the First Book

Myths of the Veritas: The Beginning of the Second Book

The Invisibility Cloak of Habit

Trees Die at the Edges

16 Tuesday Apr 2019

Posted by petersironwood in America, creativity, psychology, Uncategorized, Veritas

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despression, fear, innovation, learning, legends, myths, politics, psychology, stories, truth

When Tu-Swift had awakened after his first day of stable duty, he initially thought that these people who stand atop horses must have beaten him. When he considered the matter, he realized it was simply that his body was not used to the particular work. That did not lessen the pain.

When he awoke after the second day of duty with the horses, however, he was even sorer and his hands were blistered. As he awoke, and the dim light shattered his night dreams, the physical pain stabbed most when he first began moving. He had long ago learned, as had all the Veritas, to put physical pain out of mind. He chose not to do this. Focusing on his physical pain helped fuel his resolve to escape this place and to take his small companion with him. The aches and burns also kept a deeper, darker pain at bay — the doubt that he would ever be rescued.

He imagined the voice of his sister, Many Paths, encouraging him not to fill his belly with the first plausible hypothesis that came to mind. Yes, it was possible that the Veritas had been utterly destroyed in the surprise attack, but was it likely? He reminded himself that the Veritas had not only defeated the surprisingly numerous Cupiditas, but also withstood two potential enemies — the Nomads of the South and the Fierce and Formidable Warriors of the North without even fighting them.

The Veritas might still be engaged in battle with the horse people. Or, they may be on their way to rescue him but it would take longer on foot. They might have already been here with a small party and seen that this compound is too heavily guarded for a small force. That seemed somewhat unlikely, but still possible. Surely, if they had gotten close, they would have signaled or queried him with the modified calls of birds. And, he would have responded to let them know he was here. The modified bird call language was not sufficiently nuanced for him to know how to warn them that there was another child here in need of rescue.

He silently thanked his tribe for all that they had taught him about survival. But Day-Nah was a problem. It wasn’t his “fault” that he was so young and small, nor that he knew so little Veritas. While even Fleet of Foot could surely not outrun a horse on open ground, Tu-Swift felt he stood a good chance to outrun his pursuers if he could find the right kind of terrain. But Day-Nah? A better option for him would probably be to hide high in a tree or in a small hole until they gave up looking for him. Tu-Swift realized he knew little about these people who stand on horses and steal children. Day-Nah was not much use as a slave so perhaps they would give up on the search without much persistence.

Three large, well-muscled men came to awaken the children and left them each a bowl of food. Soon, they were pushed and pulled out into the large open place with horses and foals again. The men gestured and made it clear that Tu-Swift should separate and catch more foals and tie them up. As they entered the clearing, Tu-Swift noticed that poison ivy vines hung heavy on the trees surrounding the paddock.

He recalled the words of She-Who-Saves-Many-Lives when he had remarked to her a few summers ago about the poison ivy in his own village. The elder shaman had explained how trees needed each other to survive high winds and to kill off parasitic intruders such as poison ivy and boring insects. In the manner of such a teacher, she had gone on to say that it was the same with the Veritas. Each member of the tribe helped nurture and protect all the others.

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“Tress die at the edges. That is the way of it. And, so it is with us. A person alone in the vast world is much more at risk than the tribe,” she had pointed out.

At the time, he had take much comfort in her words.

Today, however, a great sadness and despair threatened to overwhelm him because now he himself was a “tree at the edge.”

A memory now flashed into his mind — a huge spider web that he and Shadow Walker had happened upon. Shadow Walker had invited him to observe with him for a time. The spider hung out at the very center of his web. Whenever a flying insect strayed into its web, it would rush to the bug, bite it, and wrap it with webbing. Once, however, it happened that two bugs hit the trapping web at the same instant. The spider rushed off to wrap up the larger one for later consumption. Spider then returned to the center. Spider seemed unable to remember where the second insect had landed. One by one, he carefully and methodically thrummed the strings, one by one, at last, one of the strings caused a renewed struggling by the insect. Instantly, the spider travelled up that spine of his string to the hapless bug, bit it, and prepared it for later consumption. Shadow Walker had questioned Tu-Swift who at last saw that the bug’s fear had caused it to give away its position and hastened its own death.

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Shadow Walker waited until Tu-Swift had seen this before putting it into words. “Fear is natural when one is trapped. But we are humans. We can wrap our fear in our own thoughts for a time and hide it – and ourselves – until we find a way to escape. To further cement the point, Shadow Walker grabbed Tu-Swift by the wrist and held him tight. “Get loose!”

Tu-Swift had tried to jerk his hand away. He pulled and tugged, but Shadow Walker was much stronger. It seemed hopeless. Then, he realized that Shadow Walker was encouraging him to think — not simply to react. He looked at his wrist and noticed that it was more of an oblong than a circle across. And Shadow Walker’s hand was not a completed circle but a circle with a gap. Rather than struggle, Tu-Swift had relaxed. He imagined sliding the edge of his wrist out through the slight opening where Shadow Walker’s thumb and fingertips came together. Tu-Swift imagined a swift jerk of his wrist through that opening. He forced himself to relax still further. Then…zip! He slipped his wrist out through the gap before Shadow Walker could react.

Fear could kill you. And calm thought could save you. Tu-Swift had learned his lessons well.

Tu-Swift took deep breaths of the cool clean air. Even the horses smelled good to him as he breathed in their sweet odor. He looked around at all the life that thrived around him. None of it survived and thrived through sadness. Feeling sorry for oneself might be “justified” but it was not the path to survival. The path offering promise, the path of resolve spoke to his inner heart of courage. He would wrap his fear and sadness up for now so that these captors of kids could not see it. He would think instead.

He gestured to one of the three burly ones who accompanied Dah-Nah and Tu-Swift to give him a switch such as they all carried to whip the horses with. The man complied assuming that Tu-Swift wished to use the whip to help separate mare and foal. Instead, Tu-Swift used the handle of the switch to draw his plan quickly in the sandy soil outside the paddock. When he began, one of the men reached to take the switch away, mumbling some words in anger. Then, the men began talking to each other in their odd and unfathomable language. At last, they allowed him to continue his drawing.

He first made a drawing in the shape of the current paddock. Then, he showed an addition with many narrow quick turns. Now, he used his hand as a horse to show that his hand was too big to fit through these narrow passages. He reinforced this analogy by making sounds mimicking the horses and whinnying when his hand was “stuck.” He gently took one of Day-Nah’s hands in his and showed how the small boy’s hand would fit through these narrow passages. Then, he gestured out to the horses. He pointed to one of the nearby mares, a beautiful palomino. Again, he showed how his hand unable to get through the passage. Next, he pointed to her foal and used Dah-Nah’s hand to go through the narrow passage. Dah-Nah’s face lit up. He understood. Surely, the men would as well, he hoped.

Original Masks by Sarah Morgan

And, slowly, one by one, the men’s faces revealed that they all “got” Tu-Swift’s idea. They felt a little chagrin that they had not thought of such an obvious ploy themselves, but the ROI were a practical lot. If they found an idea that they could use, they used it. They did not reject it out of hand as the Z-Lotz might have done simply because they had not thought of it themselves.

The men made it clear that the boys themselves were to construct this addition. The largest of the burly men pointed to a large set of cut planks that had already been cut to use for fence repairs.

Tu-Swift nodded enthusiastically. He returned to his drawing. He showed how he would keep the existing fence in place while they constructed the maze addition and a smaller place for the foals to gather. When all that was finished, they could remove the piece of fence that would prevent the foals from entering.

Tu-Swift had transformed his fear and despair into a plan. He thought to himself, “Not all trees die at the edges. Not these two.”

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Author Page on Amazon.

The Winning Weekend Warrior focuses on strategy, tactics, and the ‘mental game’ for all sports including golf, tennis, baseball, and others.

Turing’s Nightmares illustrates possible ethical issues around AI and robotics with 23 scenarios of the future.

Fit in Bits suggests numerous ways for the ultra-busy to work more fun and exercise into daily activities such as sitting in meetings, walking to your car, shopping, traveling, playing with kids, etc.

Tales from an American Childhood recounts early experiences and relates them to contemporary issues and events.

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Resonance

20 Thursday Dec 2018

Posted by petersironwood in America, management, psychology, Uncategorized

≈ 2 Comments

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creativity, Design, Feedback, golf, harmonics, learning, politics, programming, resonance, sports, testing, thinking, timing

Resonance

If you have ever pushed your kids on a swing, you know that timing is important. If you add the power of your next push just as the child reaches the apex and begins to fall back, you will swing your child higher and higher with little effort. On the other hand, if you add the power of your next swing at the bottom of the arc just as the swing is moving toward you at maximum speed, you will nearly stop the swing and likely injure yourself and/or your kid. Please don’t try it.

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In sports as well, the timing of when you add your effort is critical. In golf, for instance, many beginners think a lot about their hands, probably because we use our hands for many daily tasks such as texting, flipping burgers, playing video games, etc. While the hands are certainly important in the golf swing, they are the last thing to bring to bear on the golf swing, not the first. If you add your hands and wrists at the last moments right before you hit the ball, you will be accelerating the club face as you hit the golf ball. You will have greater velocity and also more stability and hence more accuracy for the shot.

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The golf swing is a complex athletic move that I cannot describe in detail. Here’s what is important in this context. Some parts of the golf swing (notice the word: swing) are much like a pendulum. The longer parts of the body (e.g., the arms) take longer to swing on their own. The shorter parts of the body take a shorter time to swing on their own (e.g., the hands). In addition, the shortest pendulum (the hands) is at the end of the longer arm swing. This means that for the arm swing and the hand/wrist moves to multiply effectively, you must engage the hands and wrists toward the bottom of the arm swing when the arms are already moving at top speed.

What is True in Mechanics and Sports is also True in Social Engineering.

If you work in a highly competitive, even cut-throat sales environment, in which there is a long tradition of stealing commissions, grabbing each other’s customers, etc., having the sales manager say something like, “You know what? Let’s cooperate! Put the customer’s interests first, not your own commission” is pretty much useless. A manager’s exhortation to cooperate is a short term high frequency “push” but it will be just as ineffective as trying to start your golf swing with your hands, or trying to push a swing with all your might when your kid is swinging toward you at top speed. If the cultural milieu is cut-throat, the manager’s statement will not be sufficient to change that culture. What the sales people will do is make sure that they have a semi-plausible story ready about how stealing someone else’s commission was really best for the customer.

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On the other hand, imagine instead that sales people have shared commissions for years and that the company takes many steps to build social capital and cooperation among everyone on the sales force. Now, the manager may do something publicly to praise an actual instance of cooperation. It doesn’t have to be heavy-handed or over the top. It is a gentle push that adds energy to what people are already doing. This is akin to adding the hands to a good golf swing or adding your swing push just as your kid begins to descend.

Don’t get me wrong. If your house is on fire, you should leave. Grab your kids and pets but don’t bother with last weeks losing lottery tickets.

But — you also need to understand why your house caught fire – perhaps faulty wiring – and why the fire was not immediately doused – e.g., your fire extinguishers are out of date. If you don’t fix underlying problems, your next house is likely to catch fire as well.

If your culture is so materialistic and superficial that a blow-hard sleaze bag who seems to have great material wealth is celebrated no matter how he or she came by that wealth and fame, you may have to deal with the short term problem first, but unless you also deal with the underlying cultural, social, and economic problems, you’ll likely find yourself in precisely the same situation again. The same or other foreign enemies will attempt to exploit those same weaknesses again by finding a different celebrity with deep underlying character defects. Those enemies will push particularly hard during a crisis or an election and they will push particularly hard in the errant directions that society is already trending toward.

The String’s the Thing Wherein We’ll Capture the Conscience of a King

Next time you have access to a piano, try the following experiment. Gently push down the C, E, and G keys above middle C. Keep them pressed down with your right hand and then strike middle C sharply with your left hand and let it go. What you will hear is that the strings of C major (C, E, G) will vibrate for quite a time after you release the middle C key. If instead, you gently push and hold down the D, F, and A keys above middle C, you will hear very little sound coming from them. Why? Because the harmonic resonance of middle C is greater with the C, E, and G than it is the D, F and A keys. Similarly, some people will tend to “resonate” with certain messages more than others will.

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This is why, for example, Russian fake news that was meant to suppress the black vote carried false stories to indicate Democratic candidates didn’t care about the “Black Lives Matter” movement, while false stories about how Democratic candidates don’t care about gay rights were targeted toward the LGBTQ community. Of course, even putting Russian election interference aside, candidates typically target their messages to those that will “resonate” with particular voters. For instance, a candidate who believes in an isolationist foreign policy, forgiving student loans, low estate taxes, and better benefits for veterans might focus a speech to a group of veterans on their desire to see better benefits for veterans. The same politician, when speaking to college students, will tend to focus on forgiving student loans. That has been “business as usual” for my entire adult life. What was really new to me in 2108 was this: an entire raft of Republican candidates promoted the idea that they were concerned about making sure that insurance companies covered pre-existing conditions. In fact, they had always voted against it and were suing to make this provision of Obamacare illegal.

Prior to the existence of lying news networks and fake web sites who would echo such lies, politicians of either party would be reluctant to employ blatant lying about their positions because, even putting ethics aside, they would be easily discovered. However, if some of their constituents only believe fake news networks, then such politicians feel that they can lie with impunity The news presented on such networks resonates with what the lying politicians say and resonates with what those viewers want to hear and believe about the people toward whom they are already favorably disposed.

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Resonance and the Overly Long Time Lag.

While managing a research project on the psychology of aging at Harvard Med School, I lived in a suburb called Woburn. This rented house had a hot water heating system, and at some point, during a particularly bitter cold New England winter, the furnace stopped working. I could have called in a professional, but instead, I tried to fix it myself. As a part of this system, there was a small gauge that looked a lot like the gauges in a level, but this one was upright and generally half filled with water. I noticed that now, instead of being half filled with water, it was only about 1/10 filled with water. I didn’t exactly understand why this could be problematic but the instructions said it should be half filled with water and there was a valve to let more water in. So, slowly and cautiously, I opened the valve. Nothing happened. I opened it a bit more. Nothing happened. I opened it a bit more. Nothing. I was about to give up and call a repair person. All at once, the little vial began to fill. Yay, me! I turned the valve off because the instructions also said the gauge should not be overfilled. But it kept filling. And filling. Damn! I made sure the valve was closed tightly. It kept filling anyway! Double damn! The gauge exploded! I had been the victim of — well hubris, of course, because I thought I could figure it out — but also a victim of delayed feedback. When feedback is delayed, all sorts of havoc can ensue.

photography of green and red fire works display

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You may have experienced a similar time lag issue with hotel showers. You turn up the hot water and the shower water stays cold. You turn it up more. It stays cold. You turn it up more and it still stays cold. And then…all at once you’re being boiled to death in your own shower and you begin wondering who will find the naked body.

Back in the early days of using LOTUS NOTES, there was a button on my screen that said, “REPLICATE.” And if I clicked on that button, a replication process would start. (Basically, it was downloading my email from the server to my ThinkPad). But sometimes, the mouse click did not register. This might not be a giant issue. In other cases, I would simply click again and this worked for most applications. But in this case, NOTES put up another button, in the same exact spot as the REPLICATE button, that said, “STOP REPLICATION.” The State of the Replication Process, however, was not accurately reflected by the State of the Button on the screen! This was endlessly annoying and could easily have been avoided. There was plenty of screen real estate to put a “REPLICATE” button along side the “STOP REPLICATION” button. Once connection speeds were faster and the computational facilities themselves were faster, this UX issue ceased to be an issue because there was no noticeable time lag between the state of the process and the state of the button.

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However, I still run into similar issues with Cable TV remotes. Do you? The time lags associated with clicking something on the remote and something happening on the screen is so long, that you begin to wonder whether the battery has gone dead or whether it is aimed wrong or whether the button was not fully depressed. Indeed, I sometimes wonder whether the entire system is truly electronic. I have begun to believe that the button press actually sends an ultrasonic dog whistle to a pack of hungry weasels who hear the whistle. To them, it’s a signal that they are about to be fed. They begin scampering in unseen cages toward their food dishes. The scampering of their feet is picked up by sensors under the floors of the cages. These sensors cause dials to change in a control room staffed by retired school janitors who push a series of buttons that change the channel or the input designation or turn on captioning, but only after they finish the New York Times crossword puzzle they are working on. Then, and only then, does the desired action take place. But if and only if you’ve been patient enough not to hit the button a second time.

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Of course, if you are the user in this scenario, there is a fix. Push the button once and only once. Now, go outside and run around the neighborhood for fifteen minutes before interacting a second time with the remote. Sure, it takes a long time to get to your program but you’ll be in much better shape after just a few months of this regimen.

On the other hand, if you are the designer of such systems, you might consider that it would be less expensive in the long run to replace the ultrasonic dog whistles, the weasels and the retired janitors with an actual system of electronics which, after all, is supposed to run at nearly the speed of light.

landscape photography of field with wind mill with rainbow

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The Takeaway

In comedy, timing, as in life, and UX design, and pushing your kid on the swing, and your golf swing, and social interventions, and election interference, and human short term memory limitations, is everything.

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Author Page on Amazon.

Fraught Framing: The Presumed Being-ness of State-ness

17 Monday Dec 2018

Posted by petersironwood in America, creativity, psychology, Uncategorized

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#therapy, framing, fun, HCI, human factors, innovation, learning, politics, problem formulation, sports, UX

Fraught Framing: The Presumed Being-ness of State-ness

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As I understand it, in Spanish and Portuguese, for example, there is a linguistic distinction between current state of being and habitual state of being that is signaled by the use of different verbs. In English, we say, “That is an angry dog” to mean “That is a dog who is generally and habitually angry” and also to mean, “That dog is in an angry mood right now.”

woman and man wearing brown jackets standing near tree

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But, regardless of what native languages we write and speak, we humans often make statements about something and treat something according to the unstated and untenable presupposition that what is true about the current state of affairs is true about eternity.

This habit of mind, reinforced by language, is often incredibly useful. For instance, near me right now are a table, and on the table, among other things are a coffee cup filled with coffee and a checkbook. The table is mainly composed of wood and marble. For many purposes, this is an adequate description. Of course, none of these so-called objects were always in their current state. Once, the wood was part of a tree. And, before that, the material in the tree was mainly rainwater and dirt. It was transformed into a tree by a mere seed of information using energy from the sun.

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Meanwhile, even the marble portion of the table was not always in its current state. At one point, in the distant past, this marble was limestone. The limestone was transformed by temperature and pressure into marble. Before the limestone was limestone it was mainly the shells of tiny animals living in the ocean. If we trace the table back far enough we will come to the “Big Bang” that started the universe as we know it. The transformation of the table from one sort of thing into another did not end when it became a table nor when I bought the table. Some day, it will no longer be a table. Eventually, the material nature of the wood, and eventually even the marble will be different. The checkbook and the coffee cup will likely cease to be a checkbook and a coffee cup long before that.

For the purpose of drinking my coffee, it is just fine to think of this cup as being a cup. It holds my coffee and keeps it somewhat warm. The table works just fine as a place to hold the coffee cup. I don’t need to think more deeply about the lifecycle of the table or the cup or the checkbook.

Usually.

But sometimes, it is useful to deconstruct these categories. A fairly common test of creativity, for example, is to think of alternative uses. What could this table be used for besides a table? It is a pretty sturdy looking table, so I would say it could be used as a seat by one or two people pretty safely. It could be used as a deadly if awkward weapon. The bracing cross-piece could be detached and used as less awkward weapon. It could be used as a barrier. The wood part could be used as firewood. The thing that I habitually use as a coffee cup could be used as a container for many types of liquids or solids and even, with the help of the checkbook, could be used to hold gasses though not very effectively. The checkbook can be used as a weapon against a mosquito. In a very different way, the checkbook could be used as a weapon against a person or even as a weapon against a nation; e.g., by writing checks to steal an election.

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While all of these “objects” have histories, they also have futures. Generally speaking, the people I know give little thought to the future of the objects that they interact with. But slowly, and likely too slowly, this is gradually changing. We often now recycle or reuse objects. Thinking about the future of an object also influences my choices about what I buy. This kind of thinking is particularly important to when it comes to radioactive material which can pose very long term hazards or it can be stolen and used to cause fairly short term mayhem. Collectively, the plastic that we use gets discarded and then, does not vanish into nothingness. It finds its way into the air we breathe and the water we drink. Now that the population of the earth is 7 billion, we can no longer afford to ignore how the objects we interact with were created and we cannot afford to ignore what becomes of them. What we call a “table” or a “cup” or a “checkbook” is really only a “table for now”, “a cup for now” and a “checkbook for now.”

The fluidity of things also applies to human beings. It should be pretty obvious to most adults that someone we call “a toddler” or a “teen-ager” is not in that category forever. Most people evolve over time both physically and mentally. The change from “toddler” to “teen-ager” takes many years. Physically, the person usually seems stable from one hour to the next (even physical stability is an illusion; we create over 200 billion new cells a day!). Socially and psychologically, however, we are unstable even at a macro level. A sixteen year old, for instance, may act very much like a mature adult in hundreds of different circumstances. Yet, if they are overly influenced by “friends” or under the influence of alcohol for the first time, their behavioral self-control may easily revert to that more like a ten year old or even a two year old.

girls on white red jersey playing hand game

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We Limit Others by our Categories

It is human and common but not useful to observe a small slice of someone else’s behavior and thereby make inferences about their habitual behavior. Even if we know about someone’s habitual behavior, it doesn’t mean that they always behave that way and it doesn’t mean that they can’t change over time. When we say, “Oh, don’t pick Chuck for the baseball team; he’s such a spaz” or “No, I’m sure Sally wouldn’t like to join us; she’s really a loner” or “You can’t count on Jim; he never follows through” we are almost certainly over-generalizing. Perhaps Chuck never learned baseball as a kid and he simply needs to learn and practice basic skills. Maybe Sally has no real friends precisely because no-one asks her to join them because everyone thinks she’s a loner because she’s always alone – because no-one ever asks her to join them. Or maybe her idea of a good time is hiking and she’d be happy to do that, but has no interest in going clubbing and getting drunk every day. Maybe Jim is completely overworked and/or needs to learn better time management skills.

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“How many psychologists does it take to change a light bulb? Only one, but the light bulb has to want to change.”

People may be changed by circumstances but therapy often works too. As the joke implies, it won’t work very well if the main reason the “light bulb” goes to the therapist is to feel better rather than to get better, it’s an opportunity lost. Others who frequently interact with the “light bulb” often hold views and use names that subvert therapy. For example, a person who is never assertive and wants to change that may find that when they do so, their family and colleagues at work, who have been taking advantage of them for their own purposes may say things like this: “Oh, you used to be so nice!” {Translation: I used to be able to manipulate you for my own purposes so much more easily}.

We Limit Ourselves by our Categories

While we unwittingly define others into boxes that may serve to limit what they can do, we humans are generally “equal opportunity destroyers” and also limit our own potential through self-talk as well. I like to play golf and have therefore asked many people over the course of my life, “Do you play golf?”

Take a guess what response I have heard at least two dozen times. “Golf? Oh, no. I tried that a couple times. I’m no good.”

silhouette of man playing golf during sunset

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After picking myself up off the floor, I try to explain as nicely and politely as possible that if you’ve literally tried it a couple times, you have no idea whether you would be any good at it. You very likely have no idea whether you would like it either. The same goes for painting, writing poetry, playing video games, eating healthy food, exercising regularly, and so on. In each case, your initial level of skill and your initial level of enjoyment are very poor predictors of the long term. It is most often, not our ability, but our self-definitional boundaries and self-talk that limits us.

Exercises for Flexibility.

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Life is complicated and complex so I understand that many folks may be reluctant to expand the scope of what they and others are capable of. But if you do want to become more flexible in your behavioral repertoire, there are several things you can do.

First, you can become aware of your statements about yourself and others. When you find yourself thinking, “Jim never follows through,” try to restate that in terms of empirical evidence. It could be: “Well, once I asked Jim to help plan the office party and he never showed up for the first meeting. Another time, he said he would help teach my daughter how to parallel park, but nothing ever came of it.” You might immediately see that you have precious little evidence to back up your claim that Jim never follows through. You might also ask yourself whether you ever asked Jim about these incidents. There may be hundreds of legitimate reasons that he didn’t “follow through.” His name might have been left off the distribution list for the party planning meeting. And so on. Generating these alternatives is explored in more detail in “The Iroquois Rule of Six” which basically says before acting on an explanation that is inferred you should generate five alternative explanations.

Second, you can read fiction, watch movies, attend stage plays, do some amateur theater or even answer a questionnaire from someone else’s perspective. In working with Heather Desurvire at NYNEX, on a usability evaluation of a prototype, we did a variation on heuristic evaluation in which we had people look for issues and offer suggestions from a variety of different perspectives; e.g., a behaviorist, a cognitive psychologist, a worried mother, a physical therapist and so on. With the total amount of time controlled for, people found more issues and offered more suggestions when they looked at the application from the perspectives of many people.

Third, and my current favorite, is “Attitude Dancing.” I’m not sure this is what Carly Simon and Jacob Brackman meant by their song title, but when I turn on music while I am cooking or cleaning, I spent part of my dancing time dancing as though I were in a completely different mood or even as though I were a completely different person.

Give it a try!

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Author Page on Amazon.

Desurvire, H. and Thomas, J.C. Enhancing the Performance of Interface Evaluators Using Non-Empirical Usability Methods. In the Proceedings of the Human Factors Society 37th Annual Meeting, October, l993

Regression to the Mean

10 Monday Dec 2018

Posted by petersironwood in America, management, psychology, sports

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Business, experiment, family, Feedback, HCI, learning, life, politics, science, sports, testing, usability, UX

Regression to the Mean

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While working full-time at IBM Research, I was also a Fellow at the Institute for Rational-Emotive Therapy in Manhattan. I wrote an article in 1978 for their Journal, Rational Living. The title was: “Why Do I Self-Down? Because I’m an Idiot?” Indeed, many people put themselves down and it is not helpful. I hypothesized several different causes for this kind of self-slamming behavior. Most of these causes you could probably figure out on your own. But one in particular is subtle and non-intuitive. It is based on a statistical phenomenon which few people know about despite the fact that it is extremely pervasive. This phenomenon is called “Regression to the Mean.”

I want to define this term by explaining some examples. Imagine that you have a new soft drink which contains a combination of herbs that will purportedly make you smarter; e.g., gingko and bacopa. (There is some evidence these may actually work but let’s assume that they don’t or that your tea has too little to be effective). Here’s what you do to “prove” that it works anyway. You give an IQ test to 10,000 people and choose the 50 who score the lowest on the test and have them drink your tea for the next six months. At the end of that time, you give those 50 people an IQ test again and — Voila! The average (or mean) of the IQ scores has almost certainly gone up. Yay! It works!

Or does it? One of your competitors is not too happy about your study. In fact, they aren’t even happy you put your tea on the market. They decide to prove that your tea is not only ineffective but that it makes people less smart. So what do they do? They give an IQ test to 10,000 people and they pick the 50 who score the highest. They have them drink your tea for six months and at the end of that time, they have them take another IQ test. In this case, the mean (average) score is lower than the first time! Ouch! They say your tea causes brain damage!

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How can the same tea make people smarter and make them dumber? In this case, it does neither. What is going on? Here’s what is going on. When you measure something, there is always some error. Whether you are measuring your weight, your height, your blood pressure, or your IQ, the measurement is never exactly perfect. Your weight may vary slightly because of atmospheric pressure and more so because of water retention. If you take an IQ test, your score will partly reflect how well you do on such tests in general, but it will partly depend on luck. You may have felt particularly good that day, or a few of the questions might have been on topics you just heard about on TV the day before, or you may have made some lucky guesses. Or, you may have been unlucky on a particular day. You might have had a cold or misread one of the questions or forgotten your morning coffee. On any given day, some people will be a little lucky and some people will be a little unlucky. These things tend to balance out in a large group and if you tested all 10,000 people after six months, then assuming the tea has no real effect, no effect will be shown in the data.

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However, if you select the very best scores, you are partly picking smart people, of course, but you are also picking the people who were lucky that day. When you test just those people six months later, they will generally be just as smart but there is no reason to suppose they will be lucky again. Some will be lucky both times, most will not be particularly lucky or unlucky and a few will be unlucky. The average score will be lower. Conversely, if you choose the lowest scoring people, you will partly be choosing people who don’t do well on such tests in general. But you will also be choosing people who were tired, sick, guessed wrong or were otherwise unlucky that day. When you retest, those people will still tend to be people who do poorly on such tests, but they won’t necessarily all be unlucky again. Some will. Some won’t. On average, the scores will be higher than they were the first time.

The phenomenon of “Regression to the Mean” was first noted by Francis Galton in the 1880’s. Tversky and Kahneman, so far as I know, were the first to note that this phenomenon could easily cause managers, coaches, and parents to end up being unnecessarily negative. Here’s how it works. Let’s say you are learning to hit tennis serve. Although you will likely improve in general, over time, there will also be a lot of variation in your performance. Sometimes, everything will work well together and you’ll hit an excellent serve, one that is above your average level. At first, the coach’s natural inclination will be to praise this by saying, “Wow! Great serve!” or something like that. Unfortunately, your next serve, due to regression to the mean is very likely not to be quite as good as that one was. Your coach’s praising behavior was thereby punished. On the other hand, if you hit a particularly poor serve for your level, your coach might say, “Oh, come on. You can do better than that!” If they choose to say such things only on your very worst performances, then, due to regression to the mean, your next serve is likely to be somewhat better. In other words, their slamming you will be rewarded by your doing better the next time. The same general tendencies will apply to managers and parents as well.

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The same applies to you! Whatever you are doing, your performance will vary somewhat over time. If you begin by praising yourself internally whenever you hit a particularly great shot, your next shot will most likely be not so great. On the other hand, if you put yourself down when you find your performance particularly bad, “You idiot! How could you miss that!?” Your next shot will tend to be somewhat better. Over time, your positive self-talk will tend to be punished and your negative self-talk will tend to be rewarded.

It’s no wonder then that many managers, coaches, and parents end up saying very negative things about their charges. It’s also no wonder that many people say (or more likely think) many more negative things about themselves than they say positive things.

Is there anything to be done? First, simply be aware of this phenomenon. That is step one. If you are running a study, you need to be careful in selecting. The study about your tea could be fixed by re-testing the entire population; by selecting a random group of 50 rather than the best or worst; or by using a control group who did not drink tea but was retested anyway. When praising or punishing someone’s performance, do not bother with trying to reward or punish outcomes based on one trial. That’s actually a pretty poor way to coach yourself or others in any case. See The Winning Weekend Warrior for more on this. Also watch out for this when you read about various conclusions of other studies. Did the investigators select either the “best” or the “worst” for their study? If they did such a selection, did they talk about the bias this introduces? Did they have a control group?

Meanwhile, treat your mistakes as opportunities to learn, not as opportunities to put yourself down. There’s really no point in self-downing. But if you do find yourself self-downing, remember that it’s common; relax; smile at this human foible; then quit doing it. At least give yourself a break for the holidays.

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Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 1974, 185, 1124-1131.

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Systems Thinking: Positive Feedback Loops

07 Friday Dec 2018

Posted by petersironwood in America, creativity, psychology, Uncategorized

≈ 2 Comments

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Design, Feedback, innovation, learning, politics, POTUS, science, systems thinking, thinking, vicious circle

Systems Thinking: Positive Feedback Loops

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One of the most important tools of thought that anyone can learn: “Systems Thinking.” I touched on this in yesterday’s post “And Then What.” I pointed out that when you take an action that impacts a system such as a human being, a family, or a country, it does not react in a mechanical way.

Here are some examples. For many years, the United States and the USSR were involved in a cold war arms race. Every time the USSR added more nuclear missiles to their arsenal, the people in America felt less safe. Since they felt less safe, they increased their armaments. When the USA increased nuclear weapons, this made the Soviet Union feel less safe so they increased their arms again and so on. This is what is known in Systems Thinking as a “Positive Feedback Loop.” It is also popularly known as a “Vicious Circle” or “Vicious Cycle.”

Let’s say that you are in pretty good shape physically and regularly run, play tennis, or work out. The more you exercise (up to a point), the better you feel. Feeling better makes you feel more like exercise and more exercise makes you feel better. People call this a “Virtuous Cycle” or “Virtuous Circle” because we think the outcome is good. But formally, it is the same kind of cycle.

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The most important thing to recognize about a Positive Feedback Loop is that it can be run in either direction. At some point, the US reduced their nuclear arsenal and this decreased the perceived threat to folks in the Soviet Union so the soviets felt that they could also reduce their nuclear arsenal which in turn, made people in the US feel safer and led to further reductions and so on.

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Similarly, if you stop exercising for a month, you will tend to feel pretty crappy. Feeling crappy makes you feel less like exercising and this in turn makes you exercise less which in turn makes you even more out of shape, feel worse and be even less likely to exercise. You can break such a “vicious circle” by starting to exercise – even it it’s just a little to start moving the circle in the “virtuous” direction. (Incidentally, that’s why I wrote “Fit in Bits” which describes many easy exercises to get you started).

woman in white bed holding remote control while eating popcorn

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“Vicious circles” also often cause disagreements to escalate into arguments and arguments into fights. Each person feels “obligated” not to “give in” and the nastier their opponent becomes, the nastier they become.

“Fawlty Towers” (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fawlty_Towers), a British sit-com uses “Positive Feedback Loops” in the escalating action of the comedy plots. John Cleese plays the co-owner Basil (with his wife, Sybil) of a small hotel. Typically, John Cleese makes some rather trivial but somewhat embarrassing mistake which he wants to hide from his wife. In the course of trying to cover up this rather small mistake, he has to lie, avoid, or obfuscate. This causes an even more egregious mistake which makes him even more embarrassed so he must result to still more outlandish lies and trickery in order to cover up the second mistake which in turn causes an even bigger mistake, and so on.

That pattern of behavior reminds me of the current POTUS who is famously unable to admit to an error or lie and uses a second and bigger error or lie to try to cover up the first lie and so on. He seems, in fact, completely incapable of “systems thinking.”

For example, he may see (and exaggerate) a real, but containable threat such as a trade deficit. He sees the US send more money out of the country than the US takes in from trade. That’s a legitimate issue. But the approach he takes is to ZAP the other parties by slapping on tariffs without any real appreciation of the fact that our trading partners are extremely unlikely to react to tariffs on their products by simply doing nothing. One could use logic, empathy, or a look at history to determine that what is much more likely is that the other countries will put tariffs on our goods (which, of course, is precisely what happened).

Similarly, he demands absolute loyalty. He repeatedly puts himself and his own interests above the law, the Constitution, the good of the country and the good of his party. He expects everyone loyal to him to do the same. But he betrays these loyal appointees, friends, and wives whenever it suits him. He thinks he is being “smart” by doing what seems to be in his best interest at that moment. But what he fails to see is that by being disloyal to so many people who have been mainly loyal to him, he encourages his allies to only be loyal to him while it suits their interests.

In the Pattern “Reality Check,” I point out that such behavior is an occupational hazard for dictators. Apparently, it can even be such a hazard for would-be dictators as well. By surrounding himself with those who always lie, cover for him, laud him, cater to his insane whims, etc., such a dictator (or would-be dictator) loses touch with what is really going on. He becomes more and more disconnected from sensible action yet those who remain loyal must say and do more and more outrageous things to keep the dictator from finding out just how bad things really are. Eventually, the Emperor with no clothes may die of hypothermia because no-one has the courage to tell him that he’s actually wearing no protection against the elements!

Positive feedback loops exist in purely natural systems as well as biological and social systems. For example, increased global mean temperatures mean less arctic ice which means more solar radiation will be absorbed by the earth’s dark oceans rather than reflected back into space by the white ice and snow. This, of course, makes the earth hotter still. In addition, the thawing of tracts of arctic tundra also releases more methane gas into the atmosphere which is even more effective at trapping the earth’s heat than is carbon dioxide. Global climate change also makes forest fires more prevalent which directly spews more carbon dioxide into the air and reduces the number of trees that help mitigate the emissions of carbon dioxide by turning it into oxygen through photosynthesis.

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A concept closely related to “Vicious Cycles” is that of “Cognitive Dissonance.” Basically, people like to believe that they are honest and competent. Much like John Cleese (Basil) in Falwty Towers, once they do something dishonest or incompetent, their first reaction is not to believe that they did something dishonest or incompetent. They will now try to distort reality by misperceiving, mis-remembering, or distracting.

For example, at the height of the Vietnam War, I was horrified at the beatings perpetrated by the police on peaceful protestors at the Democratic National Convention. I was also disturbed at the techniques the Democrats used at their convention to silence the voices of dissension within the convention. Candidate Nixon claimed he had a “secret plan” to end the War in Vietnam. I voted for Nixon. As it became clear that Nixon was a crook, I decided that I had made a mistake voting for the man. But I could have taken another path which would be to “double down” on the original mistake by continuing to support Nixon and dismiss all the growing evidence of his misdeeds. As his malfeasance became more and more egregious, it made the egregiousness of my original mistake of voting for him grow as well. So, it would be possible to become ever more invested in not believing the overwhelming evidence of his treachery. (Now, it turns out, it was even worse than we knew at the time. He actively thwarted the peace efforts of Johnson!). Perhaps because I’ve been trained as a scientist and science values the truth very highly, I did not fall prey to that particular instance of “Cognitive Dissonance.” I readily admitted it was a stupid mistake to vote for Nixon.

Of course, today, we see many people not just backed into a corner to support the current POTUS but backed into a corner of a corner. Instead of believing that a liar is lying, they protect their “integrity” by insisting that everything and everyone else is lying: the newspapers, the reporters, his opposition, people in other countries, his former business partners, his former customers, the CIA, the FBI, the NSA. Ironically, for some people, it would be easier to admit that voting for a slightly inferior candidate was a mistake than to admit that voting for a hugely inferior candidate was a mistake. Voting for a slightly inferior candidate is easily understood but if they voted for a candidate that bad and bad in so many ways it was a huge error. And now, as each new revelation comes to light, it is more and more and more embarrassing to admit what a huge mistake it was.

Another common example of a “Vicious Circle” is addiction. A small amount of alcohol, nicotine or heroine makes you feel better. But taking the drug increases your tolerance for it. So, next time, to feel better, you need to take a little more. Taking a little more increases your tolerance still further so now you need to take a still higher dosage in order to feel better. When you do, however, your tolerance increases still more. Whether it is drugs, gambling, addictive sex, or unbridled greed, the mechanism is the same. You need more and more and more over time due to the nature of the “Positive Feedback Loop.”

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A similar mechanism may be at work in the minds of apologists for the NRA (National Rifle Association). As more and more innocent people are killed partly because of easy access to guns, the mistake of supporting the NRA in their refusal to support mandatory vetting, training, and competency demonstrations for gun owners becomes an ever-more obviously egregious error. But, rather than making this more likely for supporters to admit to such an error and therefore change their position, every new slew of innocent children killed for no reason makes them actually less likely to change their position. According to Cognitive Dissonance, every such death makes their earlier decision worse – unless there is some counter-balancing argument. As the number of innocent deaths arises, and indeed, as more and more evidence of the perfidy of the NRA becomes clear, many who previously supported the NRA become ever more entrenched because they “buy into” the great value of unlimited access to guns ever more. Why? They continue their support because not to do so makes them complicit in more and more horrendous crimes.

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If you can see such patterns in your own behavior and in others, you can better choose the correct course of action for yourself and be more thoughtful in how you communicate with others about their errors. Hint: Trying to make people feel more guilty for their stupid decisions will likely backfire.

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And, then what?

06 Thursday Dec 2018

Posted by petersironwood in creativity, psychology, Uncategorized

≈ 5 Comments

Tags

Business, consequences, Feedback, innovation, learning, science, testing, thinking

And then what?

When it comes to increasing the drama in TV crime shows, westerns, and spy thrillers, both the brilliant, evil villain and the smart, brave, good-looking protagonist display one common and remarkable weakness: they rush into action without much thought as to the possible consequences of their actions.

Here’s a scene that you and I have probably seen a thousand times. The hero has a gun drawn and a bead on “The Evil One” but the Evil One has a knife to the throat of the friend or lover of The Hero. The Evil One, as both we in the audience and The Hero know, cannot be trusted. Most likely, The Evil One has caused the death of many people already, is treacherous, and lies as easily as most people breathe. Nonetheless, The Evil One promises to release the hero’s friend or lover provided only that The Hero put down their gun and slide it over to The Evil One. And The Hero complies! Often, The Hero will elicit a “promise” from The Evil One: “OK, I’ll give you my gun, but you have to let them go!” The Evil One, for whom promises mean nothing, “promises” and then The Hero slides the gun over. At this point, The Evil One is obviously free to kill both The Hero and their friend or lover immediately. Instead, The Evil One will begin chatting them up. This allows time for magic, skill, accident, God, unknown allies, or brilliance to turn the tables on The Evil One.

Here’s another scene that we’ve both witnessed. The Hero suddenly finds out some crucial piece of information that lets them know the whereabouts of The Evil One. Often this is an abandoned warehouse filled to the brim with minions of The Evil One. But, it might be the cave deep beneath the island stronghold of The Evil One; a stronghold filled to the brim with his minions. The Hero rushes in with a woefully inadequate force and without informing anyone concerning his whereabouts. He or she confronts The Evil One who not only confesses to past misdeeds but outlines their future plans to The Hero as well.

abandoned architecture building concrete

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In the TV series or the movies, the sequence of events is determined by the writer(s) so even though The Hero faces impossible odds, he or she will almost certainly overcome those impossible odds. That makes for an exciting story!

But in life?

In real life, you’ll typically do a lot better if you think about the likely consequences of your actions.

Sometimes, people fail to do this because they have simply never developed the habit of thinking ahead.

Sometimes, people let their wishes completely color their decisions. For instance, an addicted gambler, despite their actual experience, believes that gambling more will result in a favorable outcome for them rather than the truth which would be that there is an extremely small chance that they will win overall.

Sometimes, people are too ignorant to realize that there are potential negative consequences. For instance, when I was a youngster, I had a “glow in the dark” watch and cross; each glowed partly because of radium. I enjoyed putting these right up to my eyes in order to observe the flashes of individual photons. I also put together model airplanes with glue. When I applied too much glue, I dissolved it with Carbon Tetra-choloride. I loved the exotic smell of Carbon Tet. Now, it is deemed too dangerous to be used in this way.

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In many cases, it seems to me that people do think about consequences but use an overly simple model of reality on which to base their predictions. In particular, people often treat individuals and social systems as mechanical systems and base their decisions on those mechanical models rather than actuality. For example, your kid does not, in your opinion, eat enough broccoli so you simply force them to eat broccoli. Your “prediction” of the consequences of this may include that the kid will eat more broccoli, be healthier, eventually like broccoli, etc. Depending on the individual child, it may be that none of these will actually occur. In some cases, it may even happen that the exact opposite of your goals will be achieved. The kid may eat less broccoli, be unhealthier, and hate broccoli more than ever. There are many other possible consequences as well. The kid may end up hating meals with the family or hating you or hating the color green.

When it comes to individuals and social systems, it is hard to know what the net effect might be. Often though, the most significant cognitive problem that people have is that they are so sure of their prediction that they base their actions on what they think should happen rather than what actually does happen.

As recounted in some detail in the Pattern, “Reality Check,” instituting a new social reward or punishment system often does indeed change behavior, but not necessarily in the desired manner. If, for instance, programmers are now rewarded on the basis of lines of code written, they might indeed write more lines of code but many of those lines of code may be unnecessary. You might write 1000 lines of code or you could spend time thinking about the problem and then write two lines of code that accomplish the same result. Will you do so if you are only rewarded 1/500 th of the bonus?

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Similarly, you may measure the performance of service technicians by how many calls they “handle” during their shift. But if that is the main or sole measure, you may also end up having those service people tend to offer trivial or even useless advice based on insufficient information. In all these cases, if management keeps seeing what really happens, any damage done by having an inaccurate predictive model of what will happen as a result of a change will be mitigated. But in a system, whether private or governmental, where people are mainly motivated to keep management happy by telling them what they want to hear, instead of correcting a poor intervention, the problems caused by inadequate models will tend to multiply, fester, or explode.

So:

Think of possible consequences and try to determine which ones are most likely. Then, observe what really does happen. This helps avoid turning an issue into a disaster and, over time, it also helps you develop more realistic models of reality. It will also tend to put you in the habit of taking a flexible and reality-based approach to your decisions rather than one that is based on a rigid and inaccurate model of how things should be. The latter approach to decisions will not only make you individually ineffective; it will also make it almost impossible to work well with others (unless everyone involved shares the same inaccurate model).

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Many Paths

05 Wednesday Dec 2018

Posted by petersironwood in creativity, psychology, sports

≈ 9 Comments

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Business, competition, creativity, Design, divergent thinking, family, innovation, learning, life, sports, truth

Many Paths

{Translator’s Note}: Exciting news: more (mythological) archaeological evidence is being unearthed as I write this about the mythical Veritas tribes. My next series of translations will be put on hold however, until we have a chance to arrange and understand this new evidence so that I may use it to help guide the translations. In the meantime, I’ve asked one of my psychologist friends (Dr. John C. Thomas) to take over the blog for awhile and write short posts on such topics as thinking, problem solving, and creativity. Dr. Thomas has been studying these topics for fifty years. He was also trained as a Fellow in Rational Emotive Therapy. He has over 300 publications and presentations on psychology, AI, human-computer interaction, and user experience.

Hi, folks. I imagine many of you, like me, can hardly wait to see what these new findings will be regarding the Veritas tribe. Meanwhile, I’ve been asked to fill in by helping us think about thinking. One of the main characters we’ve been following in the myths of the Veritas is “She-of-Many-Paths.” She personifies the first thinking skill I’d like to discuss.

This skill goes by many names including “Alternatives Thinking,” and “Divergent Thinking.” It is also discussed in the Pattern: “The Iroquois Rule of Six.” The basic idea is simple. When we are confronted with a situation, we often “Jump to Conclusions” or “Spring into Action” before we have all the facts. Even when we have all the facts (which is rare), we also have a tendency to focus on our first interpretation. This often leads to thinking of one (and only one) course of action. And, very occasionally; for instance, in some emergencies, that is the correct thing to do.

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Even in emergencies however, our first terrified instinct about what to do can be dead wrong. For example, people see a small fire in their homes and immediately throw water on it. But if it’s a grease fire or an electrical fire, this is not a good course of action. Soon after I first began my dozen years as Executive Director of the NYNEX AI Lab, there was a fire in a nearby Stouffer’s Hotel. The charred bodies of a dozen IBM executives were found huddled in a closet. In the smoke and panic and confusion of the fire, they had apparently grabbed at the first door and gone into a dead end closet and perished there.

In daily life, there are a great many situations where a little extra thinking time would improve the outcome. For example, while working at IBM Research in the 1970’s, I drove about 10 minutes each way to work. At one point, I had a loose fan belt and my battery went dead. In a hurry to attend a meeting, I jump-started my car and drove to the IBM parking lot. Already late to a meeting, I went to turn off the car and just before I did so, I realized that I had not driven far enough to recharge the battery. So, I decided I’d better leave the car engine running for awhile. But as I gathered up my things and began dashing off to the meeting, I realized that it was insane to leave my car unlocked with the engine running! After all, someone could simply open the door and drive off! So, still in a hurry, I locked the car — with the engine running and the keys safely locked inside.

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Most of us have done similar things. In some early experiments on design problem solving done at IBM, I found that when I asked people to come up with as many solutions as possible, they would generate ideas fairly quickly until they came up with one that they thought would really solve the problem. At that point, their idea productivity fell precipitously. It is hard for us to force ourselves to think of more than one good solution.

Why is this important? For one thing, conditions change. Something may happen that makes your first solution no longer apt. For another thing, there may be side-effects of your solution that make it unacceptable. Another class of problems is that someone may object to your first solution for reasons you could not foresee. (See also, “Who Speaks for Wolf” as a way to help minimize that chance). In the context of invention and product development it is extremely unlikely that the first solution you come upon (and indeed even the first few solutions you think of) are novel. They are instead extremely likely to be the intellectual property of someone else. The most obvious solutions have likely already been patented and may already be in products or services that many customers are already using.

I have long been interested in observing people’s strategies and tactics in sporting events (See “The Winning Weekend Warrior”). One tactic that is overwhelmingly popular in tennis, for instance, is that the harder your opponent hits the ball, the harder you try to hit the ball. For example, someone hits a very hard ball while you’re at the net. You take this as an affront and think “I’ll show you!” Trying to hit the volley even harder means you take the racquet back farther. About half the time, the extra time it takes to bring the racquet back means you’ll mis-hit the ball or miss it entirely. On most of the remaining occasions, you’ll hit the volley too hard and it will go long. If someone hits the ball at you hard, what you need to do is simply block it back and guide it to the right spot. Trying to add extra power is unnecessary and too time-consuming. What is remarkable is not that you and I try to hit a hard ball harder. What is remarkable is that we never seem to try a different tactic!

There are many issues with focusing all your energy on the first solution you come up with. But the worst consequence is that you are overly invested in that first “solution” (which may not even be a real solution). This is bad in trying to solve problems in every domain I can think of and having others involved amplifies the badness.

For instance, let’s say that after 3 years without a vacation, you and your spouse finally have time for a nice two-week vacation. You want to visit Cuba for two weeks and they want to visit Vietnam for two weeks. If you each only come up with one idea, you will almost always find yourself pitching for your idea, trying to convince the other person that Cuba is better while they will spend their energy trying to shoot down your choice and explain (patiently at first and less so as time goes on) why Vietnam is a much better idea. After many frustrating arguments that go nowhere, you may decide to compromise; e.g., you could visit an empty stretch of open sea in the Pacific Ocean half-way between the locations; or, you may decide to flip a coin. All this frustration and bad feeling might be avoidable. It could turn out that your second choice and your spouse’s second choice are both San Diego! But you’ll never even discover this because when each of you only thinks of one idea, what should be a collaborative problem solving exercise instead becomes a debate – a contest with precisely one winner and one loser.

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Thinking of many alternatives will save you many headaches – at work, in your love life, in your recreational endeavors. When you force yourself to think of many alternatives, you will also be more open to the ideas of others. Over time, thinking of many alternatives whenever you get a chance will also increase your own creative potential. Who knows? You might even be chosen as the next leader.

For a leader, it is particularly important to consider many possibilities. Insisting that everyone get on board with the first idea that pops into your head will cause resentment and dissension. It will also make you far less willing to change to a different idea when circumstances necessitate it.

You may start a business and decide that you must be personally involved in every decision and with every customer contact. At first, when your company is small, this might work out wonderfully well. No-one knows the customer and the product quite so well as you do. But you are not God. You cannot be everywhere and know everything. If you never learn to delegate; never grow the capacity of your people; never take expert advice — you will drive yourself and everyone around you crazy. The very success of your business will guarantee its ultimate failure. Learn to consider many paths. You will be glad you did.

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Aftermath: The Great Escape

20 Tuesday Nov 2018

Posted by petersironwood in America, psychology, Veritas

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escape, Justice, learning, myths, politics, revenge, story, truth

Aftermath: The Great Escape

Veritas warriors pursued the retreating Cupiditas through the forests and plains until they the Cupiditas had nearly arrived back at their central place. Then, the Veritas posted lookouts to ensure that the Cupiditas did not regroup and re-attack though they judged this unlikely. The main contingent of Veritas who had served as archers returned to the center place. When evening came, She-Who-Saves-Many-Lives now sought the council of many of the Veritas as to the fate of POND MUD, ALT-R and the blinded and bitter KAVA-NUT.

Various suggestions ranged from swift killing to lengthy and painful tortures. During these discussions, She-Who-Saves-Many-Lives and She-of-Many-Paths had stayed uncharacteristically quiet. At last, She-of-Many-Paths spoke quietly.

“I can well understand why so many are eager to avenge injuries and deaths on those three traitors. Consider how it is for them, for one moment. They have no place of honor among us. They played some part in a disastrous defeat for the Cupiditas. No doubt, the Cupiditas survivors would much rather blame those three than any of their own. We need to consider what is best for us as well as for them and for the Tree of Life itself. Given that they may prove troublesome in one way or another while they live, I see some wisdom in killing them. Torturing them may prove fun for some, but what does such enjoyment make us? Does it really promote the Tree of Life? I think not. We could torture them for information that proves valuable, but if you imagine yourself being tortured, would you not say what your torturer wanted to hear in order to make the torture stop? Would this really be a clear path toward truth? It seems to me that torture is more a thing for Cupiditas than the Veritas.

“It is true, as many have said, that they may have information about the Cupiditas that would be useful for us and also about the ways of the Southern Nomads and the Fierce and Formidable Warriors of the North. But I propose that I speak with them individually and in this way, attempt to see into their hearts. I cannot guarantee success, especially with ALT-R who has fooled many amongst us. Yet, let me see what I can learn and with what degree of certainty. Then, we may finish these deliberations armed with more knowledge. Besides that, it seems to me that we need to learn, if we can, how to avoid such traitors in the future. How did three of our own people work to enslave us? It may be that such is their nature and there is nothing that we could have done or do in the future, but it may also be that we could learn what we may have done wrong and prevent having such traitors in the future.”

She-Who-Saves-Many-Lives said, “I think this is a good plan. Meanwhile, we can prepare for the celebrations of two large victories and one small victory.” Many nodded in the firelight. The Veritas considered a victory in battle as reason for a small celebration, but a victory without bloodshed held seeds of future peace as well and thus was considered reason for an even greater celebration.

The tribe assented to the plan of She-of-Many-Paths and she began immediately while others made preparations for a great feast and dance.

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She-of-Many-Paths thought first to query KAVA-NUT.

He screamed that he would get revenge and how it was unfair to use a giant bird to fight.

She-of-Many-Paths quietly asked, “Was it unfair to use the superior strength of three men to try to force your will on Eagle Eyes?”

KAVA-NUT screamed, “That’s what men do sometimes when the blood is high. It’s natural!”

“That is not our way, Kava-Nut, as you well know.” She-of-Many-Paths found anger rising in her own heart. She forced herself to relax so her mind would stay sharp and her heart open.

“Women choose with whom they wish to mate. And for what purpose could the people of the Veritas trust you? I would not trust you to make a cabin for it might please you to finish quickly for your own convenience without regard to strength. I would not trust you to hunt for in your eagerness to be done with it, you might scare away all such prey as might otherwise be taken. I would not trust you to grind corn for your cruelty might cause you to put small sharp flint flakes to destroy someone you did not like from the inside out. For what could I trust you? For what purpose could any among the people trust you when you would force yourself on someone else for your own pleasure with no regard to how that would affect them?”

“I don’t care! She blinded me! She can’t give me back my eyes!”

“No, but there is still a chance that you may see. Think upon it.”

“May you slowly die of thirst! I curse you! I will get even! We will attack with the Cupiditas! You will all be our slaves.”

“That’s already been tried. Surely, you know this, blind or not. The Cupiditas have been utterly defeated.”

KAVA-NUT raved on, “You’re LYING! We are going to CRUSH you! You’ll see!”

She-of-Many-Paths grew angry in spite of herself. She snorted a small laugh and shook her head as she realized that his own hatred and egotism blinded him far more severely than the Eagle had. Then she grew sad for it seemed that there was nothing that could be learned from KAVA-NUT himself. She would try another tack. “You realize that right now, the people are trying to decide whether to kill you slowly or kill you quickly. I convinced them…”

“SHUT UP SHUT UP SHUT UP! I don’t want to hear about it! Go away! She-of-So-Many-Words-It-Drives-Everyone-Crazy.”

Despite his vitriol, She-of-Many-Paths found this funny. “I’ve argued that there may be some value in what you know. If I can’t convince them, you will likely die soon one way or another. So, you need to convince me that you have some kind of value.”

“YOU IDIOT! The Cupiditas are going to enslave you! POND MUD, NUT-PI, ALT-R. These will be your lords. Go away, slave!”

She-of-Many-Paths did not give up, but she did decide further attempts to talk right now would be fruitless. She decided to try POND MUD next to see whether he had any more insight into his own character and situation as well as those of his companions.

“POND MUD? I come to speak with you. As I promised, the Veritas are trying to decide your fate. I come now to learn whether there is anything I should know to speak on your behalf.”

“Hello, She-of-Many-Paths. I am strong. So I can help move or build things. Remember I always used to win that game – King on the Hill. Right?”

She-of-Many-Paths cast her mind back. “Here’s what I remember, POND MUD. I remember that ALT-R almost always won that game. He was at the top. But right below him, there you were, throwing everyone else off with your great strength.”

“Exactly. That’s what I was talking about!” POND MUD looked hopeful.

“You didn’t actually win, POND MUD. It was really ALT-R. He used your strength to get what he thought was best for him, not what he thought best for you or for both of you or for the Veritas as a whole. This is his way and though I don’t condone it, I understand it as a kind of blindness to his place in the universe. I don’t understand why you keep following ALT-R though he uses you for his purposes and only promises and persuades you that he cares about your welfare. So, why do you continue to believe him?”

“It just works out better when we follow his plan. I can make plans too. But they aren’t as good. His plans are better. His plan was to have all of our forces come at once on the middle way but NUT-PI didn’t like that plan. Anyway, ALT-R is my friend. I think he’s the only one who really looks out for me.”

She-of-Many-Paths sighed and shook her head. “Oh, POND MUD. There were many who liked you. And I promise you that ALT-R is not looking out for you.”

“You’re wrong. He’s told me he looks out for me. He’s said that many times.”

She-of-Many-Paths decided she could say nothing that would break POND MUD’s devotion to ALT-R. To POND MUD, POND MUD and ALT-R were inseparable; like one entity – a partnership. She-of-Many-Paths was sure that ALT-R viewed POND MUD as a useful tool. But maybe that’s not really true. I wonder how ALT-R really does view it, but extracting the truth from him would be difficult indeed. Perhaps she could try a different approach and learn something about ALT-R and probe POND MUD’s thoughts at the same time. As for the future, we should be on the lookout for this kind of exploitative relationship early. The way they played King on the Hill should have clued them in that something was amiss.

“So, POND MUD, how did you and ALT-R work together to plan this battle.”

“Well, I can’t really tell you that. You see? I would be betraying my friend, ALT-R.”

She-of-Many-Paths carefully avoided trying to question POND MUD’s premises and said instead, “I don’t see. Of course, if it were before our battles, you would be betraying your side but the battles are all over. I am guessing that you would not be welcome any more at the Cupiditas. They will almost certainly blame their loss on the three of you more than their own commanders. And, now, you see how it is. You haven’t joined your comrades in their retreat. If you were to leave now and show up so late, they would be even more inclined to think you traitorous to them. So I don’t really see how you are betraying the Cupiditas or ALT-R to tell me what your decision process was like.”

“I don’t want to say anything about it.” POND MUD lowered his head and spoke softly. “I’ve been thinking about it and I may have already betrayed him. I spoke with you and told you things I shouldn’t have. Then, later, when ALT-R asked me about it, I said that I had just seen you but that we had not spoken. So, you might have used what I said and then I should have admitted that I did talk with you. See, I’m not so perfect either. Don’t tell him though! You won’t tell him will you?” POND MUD seemed more concerned about ALT-R’s opinion of him than the fact that his very life hung in the balance.

She-of-Many-Paths sighed again. “No, POND MUD. You might want to tell him, but I’m not going to. Anyway, POND MUD, you do realize that your very life is at stake here, right? You have to be able to convince the Veritas that they can trust you again. How will you do that?”

“I wish you would do it! You’re much better at that sort of thing than I am. That’s one reason…anyway, what will you tell them?”

“I’m not sure I should speak for you, but what will you say? How can we trust you? If you do whatever ALT-R says you should do, then we can only trust you if we can trust him. But how can we trust him? If might help to understand more about how you interacted with each other and with NUT-PI and others. Do you see how you throw your lot in with someone who has guided you on a path to disaster?”

POND MUD frowned. “Well, I don’t think of it that way. ALT-R is smart. I am strong. Why shouldn’t the strong do as the smart people suggest?”

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She-of-Many-Paths considered. “There is something to what you say. But you must trust such a smart person to act for all, not just for himself or herself. And if such a smart person has followers who never question that leader but go along with everything, the temptation will increase to play them for fools. That’s why we have open dialogue with as many as desire to be involved. The people have also developed various customs and rules to prevent a person who is smart from misleading them onto a path of destruction, regardless of how seductive his words might have appeared. If you cede all power to one particular person, however clever they may be, the trust we have in you can be no greater than the trust we have in that person. I have great trust in She-Who-Saves-Many-Lives. I can feel that she is trustworthy. But I also have a lifetime of experience with her actions and her words. How can any of us trust ALT-R? How can you trust him?”

POND MUD shook his head. “I don’t know. But I do. He’ll get us out of this jam. I know he will.”

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She-of-Many-Paths sighed, “I will go now and relate our conversation to the council. I feel bad for you POND MUD. I see in you a good heart but one too readily given to a deceiver and a traitor. Yet my own inadequacies prevent me from finding a way to show you that which seems so obvious to me. Your path to life is a path you must carve on your own. The path you are on has led you from bad to worse and ultimately to a death before your time. You may not see things the same way. I understand that. But all the people who hold your life in their hands…do you not see that they have no reason whatever to trust ALT-R nor a POND MUD who has shown such devotion to a traitor?”

POND MUD stomped and hit his fists together. “You’ll see! ALT-R will get us free!”

She-of-Many-Paths strode away through the night replaying her recent conversations and wondering what she might have said differently. At last, it was nearly time to speak with ALT-R. Yet, she wanted to formulate a plan for such a conversation. She certainly knew she would not fall for his lies as easily as POND MUD and yet, even the prospect of sharing his space and his air filled her with a sense of foreboding and disgust. His words were like the bright red berries of the creeping nightshade — pretty to behold but a slow and subtle poison nonetheless. She paced back and forth finally deciding that she would try pumping him for information about his companions and about the Cupiditas. As She-Who-Saves-Many-Lives often said, “Even in the words of your enemies, if you look behind their hate, you may find wise counsel to guide your life.” That seemed too much to hope for. But she would discover what could be learned. If ALT-R kept avoiding the questions or giving answers that seemed lies, that would be worth noting. Yet, some seeds of truth might spill upon her consciousness in the threshing of the truth that she foresaw.

She came to his enclosure and heard him talking to someone. Or, perhaps he was greeting her, she wondered. She decided to approach quietly. She glanced through the enclosure to see ALT-R sitting in the far corner muttering to himself. She quietly padded around the enclosure so that she could listen to his musings. She was well aware that it was possible he heard her and that his seemingly spontaneous mutterings could be a show for her not an opening into his real heart but only a trap with camouflage such as the ones that the Veritas had laid at the bottom of the slippery hill to trap Cupiditas invaders. He seemed to be muttering to himself. But who knew. She could only catch some of the words.

“POND MUD. Unreliable. She-of-Many-Paths. Too many paths. But she is smart. That’s the kind of companion I should seek. Smart. We could rule together. But she likes Trunk of Tree or maybe Shadow Walker. She doesn’t like POND MUD. She might like me though. I could help her lead. It has to be her. Not Shadow Walker. Not Eagle Eyes. Damn POND MUD. He must have told her our plans! The problem is, no-one trusts me now. I have to win their trust, but how? I’ve done it before. I can do it again. But no. This time, no-one will believe me.”

She-of-Many-Paths decided to break into this monologue. “ALT-R. I have come to talk with you about your fate.”

“Oh, She-of-Many-Paths, yes, the cleverest of us all! You should be celebrating your great victory. You defeated the Cupiditas. Well done. They are a brutal people and I never should have thrown my lot in with them. But I did. I understand. Now there is nothing but death ahead. I don’t blame you. Yes. That’s what I would do. I wouldn’t expect you to show mercy now. Though some call you that. But I never believed it. Because mercy is just another name for weakness, right?”

Generally, She-of-Many-Paths had a soft warm voice, but on this occasion her voice clanged of dull iron and angry crows. “I’ll get right to the point, ALT-R. Many of the Veritas would like to see you dead. Along with KAVA NUT and POND MUD. Why should we spare you?”

ALT-R seemed in a good mood which seemed odd under the circumstances. “I can think of no reason. Can you? You seem to like wolves after all. If you can train a wolf to work with you, then maybe you could even train me?”

She-of-Many-Paths considered this. She had indeed trained some wolves. But it wouldn’t really be true to say that she trusted them exactly. Why was he bringing this up? Clever. Rather than arguing his case, he was trying to get her to do it for him. He was appealing to her vanity. Offer up a challenge. If I can train a wolf, he wants me to think I can therefore also train one such as ALT-R to be cooperative.

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“I repeat my question, ALT-R. Why should we spare you? Convince me. There are many who would simply have you put to death. A slightly larger number would have you put to death slowly. A few would like to see you turned over to the Cupiditas. I suspect they relish inflicting tortures. So, why should we spare you?”

In the dim light, looking through the slats and webbing, she could see that ALT-R smiled as he answered. “I can’t think of a single reason. Can you?”

“No,” answered She-of-Many-Paths. She could see that ALT-R was trying to engage her; to make his problem into her problem. Indeed, she did feel frustrated that she could see no path to rehabilitation for any of them. Each of the traitors seemed dead set in their ways.

After a long pause, ALT-R spoke again. “I don’t see a way. I am actually quite a changed man but I see no way to prove that to you. Or to the Veritas as a whole. I see that no-one now trusts me. And why should you? I have betrayed my people. There is nothing to be done. I am sure I will die soon, slow or fast. It’s sad, to be sure, that we can train the wild wolves and trust them and not be able to train one of our own such as myself. But that’s the way of it. If you can’t think of a way to save me, I’m sure no-one else can either. Too bad in a way. We would have been such an amazing pair of rulers, you and I. And, imagine we had kids! How smart might they be! You know, POND MUD always had his eye on you. He always wanted you so, since he is my friend, I never said anything to you. I didn’t want it to become a wedge between my friend and I. And, you always seemed to like Trunk of Tree. Or, Shadow Walker. Or both? I don’t know. Is it possible to like more than one? Just as I like more than one way of looking at things.”

After another long pause, She-of-Many-Paths said, “I’m not hearing a reason that I can take to the Veritas to argue for your life.”

“Oh, no. I wouldn’t bother. I’m sure you have more important things to do. I was just musing on you and your name. I admire your ability to see things from many ways. I do like — or did like — some of the things about the Cupiditas, but on the whole, I can see that our way — the way of the Veritas — is much better. Their way is too nasty for me. Does that surprise you? I suppose you might see at least something good in their ways. Right? You can always see things in more than one way. That’s what I … what I … like about you.”

“I don’t actually know much about the Cupiditas. What can you tell me about them? What was your plan exactly? Were you going to murder us all? Enslave us? Just steal everything you could?”

“The leader of the Cupiditas, NUT-PI, I can tell you is a coward. He would not lead his people in the battle. He held back someplace safe and far removed. But he is cruel and bloodthirsty. It was his idea to kill most of you and enslave the rest. In fact, he wanted me to bring him three of the most spirited women from among the Veritas to him. His plan was to torture them into submission. He specifically asked, not for the three most beautiful, but for the three most spirited. Naturally I thought of you. And Eyes of Eagle. But I couldn’t do it. I couldn’t possibly be a part of anything like that.”

“So you say, ALT-R, and yet you were willing to help KAVA-NUT try to rape Eagle Eyes and lie about it.”

“Ah, yes. That was a horrible misunderstanding. KAVA-NUT, you must realize, convinced me and also POND MUD, that Eagle Eyes really wanted KAVA-NUT but was just too shy to make it obvious to him. Also she feared that Fleet of Foot would perhaps be jealous and kill them both. Anyway, I am glad I was able to prevent having you snatched away. But I don’t expect special treatment for saving you, She-of-Many-Paths. It was just that I couldn’t really bear the thought of you with NUT-PI. You don’t know how cruel he is, but I do. He is not the man for you. Ruthless. Powerful. Clever too. But I see how you could prefer someone less clever such as Trunk of Tree or Shadow Walker. Someone who is just — you know — an okay person. Not really worthy of a leader such as yourself. Well, that’s why…you know…you and I are both leaders. In that one way at least, we are similar. But I can see why you would prefer someone less smart than you. Being with me, you would always be second guessing whether what I am saying is true. You’re probably even wondering that now though I am simply telling you the truth.”

She-of-Many-Paths found this entire web of lies interesting in that, despite her knowing full well that ALT-R probed for a weakness and wanted to poison her mind, it still had some slight effect. No wonder POND MUD fell for his trickery. But in the end, ALT-R’s words were no more meaningful than the winds whispering in the leaves of the birches near the stream.

“Goodbye, ALT-R. I will report on our conversation to the council. Like all among the Veritas, you have received a great and wondrous gift, the gift of speaking and of weaving words together to make stories. This is a gift more splendid than any other imaginable. For it allows us to work together and improve things over time. Yet, you pervert this gift. You use false stories merely as a way to manipulate others and get your way. It is a pity in much the same way it would be for a fish to bite off its own fins or an eagle to tear out its own eyes. It is the one true gift that humankind has and instead of using it as it is meant to be used…goodbye.”

She walked away, feeling as though she needed to bathe in a stream so as to remove the slather of lies that he had spewed upon her. She would need to scrub with horsetails as well, she reckoned. And so she did at last donning clean bright clothes for the celebrations which lasted three days and two nights. When all had eaten their fill and danced unto oblivion, the Veritas smoked of the devil weed and considered again the issue of what to do with the three traitors.

A variety of interesting and painful tortures were considered. Many others simply wanted them dead as quickly as possible. They viewed them as a virulent tumor that must be excised from the people.

After all ideas were considered but no clear consensus emerged, She-of-Many-Paths began to speak.

“I do not trust any of the three. I feel that they are every bit as corrupt as when we first vanquished them. If anything, ALT-R has grown more clever in his lies. POND MUD will follow ALT-R no matter what. KAVA-NUT has gone mad so far as I can tell. I could experience some joy at their severe pain, but I do not wish to enjoy such as that. I fear that such tortures could make us more like the Cupiditas. What would be the point of our defeating such an enemy if we become that enemy?

“You all know that these three traitors have some skills but excellent stalking is not one that any of them has. I was able to see POND MUD long before he saw me, and I am not the most skilled tracker amongst us. KAVA-NUT is blind. ALT-R is a problem. I suggest we cut out his tongue and set free the three of them, again banishing them. We shall make it clear that they must leave our lands for good and any of them who returns will be killed on sight. Then, I would like our best trackers to follow them for a five day’s journey; to overhear and report back on the conversations amongst the three. I judge there may yet be things to learn from them, but we will not gather such intelligence while they are captive. We may gather it when they are free and do not know they are being followed.”

Shadow Walker said, “You say you do not want to torture them but you want to cut out ALT-R’s tongue?”

“Yes. I do think it is a necessary precaution. He lies as easily as you breathe, Shadow Walker. He is not using his gift of speech to help the Veritas spin a stronger weave that can hold us together under all circumstances. Rather, he uses his gift only to try to divide us and weaken us. It is, for him, a weapon of conquest rather than a tool of many thinking together. Without a tongue, I do not think he will be able to start any more wars and the quiet might enable POND MUD to reflect upon how he has been manipulated.”

The tribe puzzled and dialogued for three days but in the end decided to follow the suggestion of She-of-Many-Paths. As could be expected, ALT-R found the prospect of losing his tongue a horror beyond belief. Yet, it was done. After ALT-R had recovered from the tongue extraction and subsequent cauterization, the three were given some small provisions and accompanied to the edge of the lands of the Veritas. Here, they were sent on their way and admonished never to return. The three marched east and then south and for five days, as had been planned, the trio were followed. On the fifth day, the Veritas trackers headed back and reported on what they had observed to She-Who-Saves-Many-Lives and She-of-Many-Paths.

The first night, KAVA-NUT and POND MUD had gotten into an altercation around their campfire which had ended when POND MUD threw KAVA-NUT to the ground. KAVA-NUT’s skull had crashed into a sharp rock that had been placed to help contain the fire. There was not a lot of bleeding but in the morning, ALT-R and POND MUD discovered that he had died in the night. ALT-R had tremendous difficulty trying to manipulate POND MUD without the power of his tongue. Yet, he managed to convince him that they should split up. It seemed that ALT-R suspected that they were being followed though he gave no obvious indication of this. From drawings in the dirt near the campfire, it appeared that ALT-R and POND MUD were to rendezvous in three days time near the lands where the wondering Nomads of the South sometimes ventured. ALT-R cut POND MUD, apparently so that he could leave a false trail of blood which he did. In fact, POND MUD made a number of false trails. The trackers, still unseen by POND MUD watched him circle back to the rendezvous spot. POND MUD’s wound was festering and he began ranting with fever. Still, ALT-R did not show up at the rendezvous spot. He became incoherent. The trackers debated whether they should leave him to die or try to help him. At last, they approached POND MUD cautiously.

“POND MUD. Do not fight. We will help you heal your wound. Then we must return to the Veritas.”

“Go away. I’m waiting for ALT-R. He will cure me.”

“I am not so sure about that. But you need help now. Your wound has never healed properly. There are some ant hives nearby. We will use the soldier ants to stitch together your wound.”

POND MUD began to rant and rave. “ANTS! ANTS! NO ANTS! That will hurt! They are NOT Strong! It’s a lie! She-Who-Saves-Many-Lives sent you didn’t she?! I hate them! Leave me alone. ALT-R will come soon. Away! Away!”

“Just listen for a moment, POND MUD. You are very sick. We can use the pincers of the ants to bind the wound. I’ve done it before. Once they bite, you separate the head and it stays put thus stitching your skin together. Their venom hurts but somehow cleans the wound. It’s your best chance. Let us try to save you.”

“It’s her fault! I will kill you all! You’ll see! The Cupiditas will be here soon. I hate…I hate…no ants. No ants. I am very strong. I can still kill you! You’ll see! ALT-R will save me.” The trackers decided to back off and observe POND MUD from a safe distance. They hoped his mood might change later and they could still save him. But when they approached again a few hours later, POND MUD’s large, well-muscled lifeless body lay arms akimbo. They pried his right hand open and there clutched very tightly between forefinger and thumb was a crushed ant. This seemed an odd task to set oneself just as one lay dying. Perhaps, they speculated, he was tying to bind his wounds with ant pincers himself.

The trackers who had been following ALT-R saw signs that he entered a river but could not pick up his trail on the other side. They went both upstream and downstream for a fair distance but saw no sign that ALT-R had emerged on the other side.

She-Who-Saves-Many-Lives sighed. “So, two of our traitors are dead after all. And, the third we don’t really know anything about.”

One of the trackers shook his head, “We are pretty sure he must have been swept away in the river. We saw clearly where he entered but there was no exit on the other side.”

She-of-Many-Paths said, “No, I strongly suspect that he never intended to go to the other side. He went down stream a ways and may be returning toward us.”

The tracker frowned. “But then he would have never made it to the rendezvous spot shown on the crude map he drew at the campfire. POND MUD seemed quite convinced that he was going to show up there. And save him. Somehow.”

She-of-Many-Paths nodded. “Yes, I have no doubt that’s what POND MUD believed. But that was never part of ALT-R’s plan. He sent POND MUD just to draw you away from tracking him. I suspect he’s out there somewhere. You could go back to the river and check this side to pick up his trail.It may be too late. I am sorry now that I counseled this course of action for one of these three evil ones yet lives. We did destroy his worst weapon but now…I don’t know for sure, but this is what I strongly suspect: I think he will sneak back here and try to wreak some kind of revenge.”

“As do I,” added She-Who-Saves-Many-Lives. “As do I.”

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Magic Portal to Other Kingdoms

petersironwood

~ Finding, formulating and solving life's frustrations.

Tag Archives: learning

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